The impact of the coronavirus outbreak in March will not be revealed in cold, hard stats until those numbers are released in late May.
Nevertheless, John Dolan — an independent market maker in futures based on the Case-Shiller 10-city index and an expert witness with more than three decades of experience with structured securities in the mortgage market — already has some thoughts on how the coronavirus is affecting housing trends now, and will in the future.
From an intensified homeowner preference for smaller cities to increased downward pressure on housing prices in states experiencing pension fund challenges, the virus has several impacts mortgage businesses should prepare for, including the five that follow.
But within the 20-city subindex that generally represents only the larger metropolitan areas, the gains above the past peak are relatively lower at 6.4%. Further narrow that group down to the 10-city index, and prices are only 2.7% above their past peak.